US Election Polls: Who is Ahead—Harris or Trump?

As the 2024 US presidential election draws closer, speculation abounds regarding potential matchups. While President Joe Biden is expected to be the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer, there’s been considerable discussion about Vice President Kamala Harris, especially as polls show fluctuating levels of enthusiasm for Biden. On the Republican side, Donald Trump remains the clear front-runner despite multiple legal challenges. This dynamic prompts a burning question: if Kamala Harris were to face Donald Trump in the 2024 election, who would be ahead in the polls?

Current Landscape: Trump’s Dominance

Donald Trump’s influence over the Republican Party remains remarkably strong. Despite criminal indictments, civil cases, and the shadow of the January 6 Capitol riots, Trump has continued to galvanize his base. Polls consistently show that he dominates the Republican primary field, often polling far ahead of other GOP candidates such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and former Vice President Mike Pence.

In hypothetical matchups against prominent Democrats, Trump is also a strong contender. Though Biden currently maintains a slight lead over Trump in many surveys, Harris fares somewhat worse in head-to-head matchups. According to polling aggregates from sources like RealClearPolitics, Harris has consistently polled behind Trump in hypothetical general election scenarios.

Kamala Harris: A Polarizing Figure?

Kamala Harris, the first female vice president and the highest-ranking Black and South Asian woman in American political history, brings a unique profile to any presidential contest. Yet, her tenure as vice president has been scrutinized heavily. Critics cite her handling of major issues such as immigration and voting rights as points of contention, while supporters emphasize her historic role and continued advocacy for marginalized communities.

In a general election against Trump, polling data suggests that Harris faces a more difficult path than Biden. Surveys often indicate that Trump leads Harris by a few percentage points, with some polls showing his lead widening among key voting blocs, such as independents and suburban voters.

Key Factors Shaping the Polls

1. Favorability Ratings: Trump, despite his legal challenges, retains a steadfast core of supporters. His favorability ratings among Republicans remain high, often hovering between 70-80%. Harris, on the other hand, has seen lower favorability ratings, with some polls placing her approval below 40%. Negative media coverage and political attacks have contributed to her lower polling numbers.
2. Electoral History: Trump has proven his ability to mobilize a significant portion of the electorate, even under polarizing conditions. His 2016 victory and competitive 2020 showing highlight his appeal to working-class voters, particularly in the Rust Belt and rural regions. Harris, despite her historic win alongside Biden, has yet to establish her own electoral brand on a national level.
3. Biden’s Health and Age: One significant factor looming over the 2024 election is President Biden’s age. As the oldest sitting president in U.S. history, questions about his health have led to increased scrutiny on Harris, who would be his successor if something were to happen. Biden’s decision to run for re-election has been met with skepticism by some within his own party, which has inevitably placed Harris in the spotlight as a potential nominee in future elections.
4. Voter Turnout: Voter mobilization will be critical in 2024. While Trump excels at energizing his base, Harris would need to focus on driving turnout among young voters, people of color, and women—demographics that played a crucial role in the Democratic victories in 2020. Any dip in turnout in these key areas could widen the gap between her and Trump.

What the Polls Say

In recent polls comparing a potential Harris vs. Trump matchup, Trump typically leads by an average of 2-4 points. For instance, an Emerson College survey conducted in August 2023 found Trump ahead of Harris by 5 percentage points, with 45% of voters supporting Trump and 40% backing Harris. Other polls show a narrower gap, but the trend remains consistent—Harris trails Trump in most head-to-head surveys.

Notably, both candidates have high disapproval ratings, which could lead to a particularly negative campaign. Trump’s disapproval ratings have hovered around 55%, while Harris’ ratings often range from 50-54%, depending on the poll.

Conclusion: Harris Faces an Uphill Battle

While Donald Trump is no stranger to controversy, he remains a formidable opponent in the 2024 election cycle, especially in a potential matchup with Kamala Harris. Harris, though a historic figure and a rising star within the Democratic Party, has significant hurdles to overcome. The polls suggest that, at least for now, Trump holds a narrow lead over Harris, underscoring the challenging electoral landscape she would face if she were to become the Democratic nominee.

With over a year until the 2024 election, these polls are far from definitive. Campaigns can shift rapidly, influenced by global events, domestic crises, and the candidates’ performances on the campaign trail. What remains clear is that a Trump vs. Harris contest would be one of the most polarizing and closely watched matchups in modern U.S. political history.